By Dr Alpha Lisimba
It is now nearly two years since the bloody conflict erupted in Sudan for power struggle between the two Army Generals of the powerful paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Led by General Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Genral Hemedti and General Al Burhan prior to the conflict were close friends, worked together but now battle each other for the control of the state and its vast resources.
The RSF which emerged as an organised government non-professional militias controls most parts of Sudan including the nation’s capital Khartoum ever since the war broke out in April 2023. The dispute between the two Generals reached to the point of no return when General Al Burhan decided to merge the RSF into the regular army as a part of process toward handing over power to civilian government. However, Hemedti’s political desires made him refuse the integration of his RSF forces into Sudan’s SAF and instead opted to push the RSF to remove General Burhan by force. According to Reuters Hemedti made millions of dollars by selling gold bars to Dubai and fears that integrating his forces into regular army may make him lose control over his private gold mines in Jebel Amer in Darfur which is the most productive sources of hard currency for the militia
On the other hand SAF considered RSF’s refusal to merge with SAF and their sudden deployment throughout Sudan without coordinating with SAF at the time is seen as an invasion of the SAF’s political sphere and an insult to well established Sudanese army. The differences between the two Generals grew extremely a long their political ideological lines which led the entire Sudan into the current devastating conflict. Many people are wondering why the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) advances every day and controls more areas in all parts of Sudan and while Sudanese army is unable to push the RSF out of its controlled areas including the nations’ capital Khartoum despite the army is putting massive efforts to defeat the RSF. It is almost two years of an intense fighting on daily basis between the two rivals particularly in the last contested state, Al-Fashir in north Darfur without a clear victory to either regular Army or RSF militias.
Al Fashir which is the capital city of North Darfur state is perhaps the only remaining town out of five states in Darfur under the Sudanese government control; however and thus far, the RSF has attacked Al Fashir 156 times since the conflict started and continues to attack the town in an attempt to size it from SAF and the Darfur Joint Forces which is formed from different rebel groups to aid the army defend Al Fashir. If RSF defeats SAF in Al Fashir, than it means that the RSF controls the entire Darfur region with its five states already under its control. The risk of Al Fashir falling under RSF control is that the RSF may opt to form its own government in the region and this if happens will make the conflict far morecomplicated in the already fragile state than it is now and it will also prolong the age of conflict with no anticipation for any looming peace. However, the army and Darfur Joint Forces are putting up the fight against RSF and determined not to allow Al Fashir to fall under the control of RSF. So far the Sudanese army is well positioned not to allow RSF to take over the town due to the importance of Al Fashir in this war. Al Fashir holds strategic and symbolic importance for SAF and the former Darfur rebels who now fight alongside the government forces. For RSF taking over Al Fashir from the Army means the RSF controls the entire Darfur region which gives them leverage in the future peace talk if any and for the Army Al Fashir means future of the entire unity of Darfur and Sudan. This is why Al Fashir has become an importance battle ground that determines the future direction of conflict and peace in Sudan. The unity and integrity of Sudan relies heavily on Sudanese Army winning the war in Al Fashir and then moving to liberate other towns in Darfur which are under the control of RSF
It is importance to note that RSF is causing massive human suffering to innocent Sudanese in the areas they controlled and the situation in these areas is only worsening and deepening the humanitarian crisis. Both the Unites States and United Nations have condemned RSF’s actions against civilians and in particular US has imposed sanctions on some of the RSF’s commanders for their direct involvement in killing civilians and obstructing aid delivery to areas under their control. This global criticism makes evident that the militias are not only fight the Army for regime change but turned the entire Sudan into violence marketplace as they target the entire population causing death, displacement and putting millions on the brink of famine. While the army, which has been criticised for indiscriminate bombardment of residential areas and human rights abuses and failure to protect civilians from the RSF, has recently start to launch a comprehensive offensive to retake the areas sized by RSF. However my assumption is that despite the fact that the army has barred RSF from capturing more areas by destroying main bridges and blocking the main highways, the army is still far from retaking all areas captured by the RSF. This is because Hemedti has formed militias that aremore powerful than the state army, making it very difficult for the army to defeat the paramilitary.
Though the good news is that the SAF has recently stepped up the fight against the RSF and has achieved some advances in Al Gazeera State by retaking Sinja Town from RSF and also progress in Omdurman as well but Omdurman despite being under SAF control, it is extremely risk because RSF’s members are still able to enter the city and kill civilians while traveling from place to place. Local Omdurman residents who were unable to escape the war and trapped in the area report that they can still see members of RSF walking in the city looting and stealing civilians belongings in some places. This is to say that the city is yet to be completely free from RSF’s brutal actions. Although the army is facing lots of challenges, we are expecting more progress in the coming days in areas where RSF struggles to stay and withdraw their troops due to intense air strikes by Sudanese army jet fighters.
However, Khartoum and Bahari cities which are important parts of Sudanese capital are still under the control of RSF and in addition the RSF also still controls different pockets of Khartoum where its members dress traditional civilian clothes and hide in civilian homes to avoid air strikes by SAF. This also makes difficult for the Sudanese army to identify who is RSF and who is ordinary citizen. In another move and as there is no any prospect for peace talks, the RSF have recently established their own semi-civilian administration in these two twin cities and imposed their own rules to further humiliate and delegitimise the government in Port Sudan but no one is collaborating with these RSF administration because all Sudanese believe that the country cannot be rule by brutal militias and foreign fighters
According to Al Gazera, those who were unable to escape and now live under RSF rule are surviving at the mercy of their killers, the RSF militias kill families for refusing to hand over their daughters or mothers, homes and belongings. Sources from Sudanese government say that the army has increase its fighting capabilities and plans to retake major cities under the control of RSF before the end of 2024. The question presenting itself is that what will happen if the army do not liberate the entire Khartoum, Wad Madani and push the RSF out of Al Fashir by the end of this year 2024 and raise the Sudanese flag in these towns as the army promises. Will the Army consider peace talks or continue to fight the RSF and what will the prospect for peace in Sudan look like in 2025. It is only few days left from 2025 and we hope our military wins the war against the RSF and liberates the entire Sudan so that we can celebrate our Sudan free from militias in 2025
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