By Hicheme Lehmici — November 7, 2025
In near-total silence from the international community, Sudan has been sinking since April 2023 into one of the most violent, complex, and deadly wars of the 21st century.
For almost two years now, Sudan has been ravaged by a conflict of staggering brutality, largely ignored by global media and world powers. The war pits two former allies—General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti,” leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—against one another in a struggle rooted in deep ethnic, tribal, and geopolitical fractures.
Beyond competition for territory and political power, the conflict has evolved into a devastating campaign of ethnic cleansing and systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure, raising fears of an even greater humanitarian catastrophe.
A Total Civil War and an Unprecedented Humanitarian Collapse
Since April 2023, fighting between the SAF and the RSF—descendants of former Darfur militias—has triggered one of the largest population displacements in modern history.
According to the United Nations Regional Information Centre (UNRIC), more than 12.5 million Sudanese have been forced from their homes. Civilian casualties are extremely difficult to verify; estimates range from 61,000 deaths (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine) to over 150,000 (Council on Foreign Relations). Some analysts believe the real toll is far higher.
Khartoum, Omdurman, and major cities such as El Fasher, Nyala, Wad Madani, and El Geneina lie in ruins. Hospitals, schools, universities, water stations, bridges, power grids, and telecommunications networks have been systematically targeted or destroyed.
Widespread looting—of banks, markets, government buildings, and humanitarian warehouses—has left millions entirely destitute.
In Darfur, the conflict has taken an increasingly genocidal turn. Non-Arab communities such as the Masalit, Fur, and Zaghawa face targeted killings, mass expulsions, village burnings, and land appropriation.
At the heart of this violence lies a longstanding dispute over land rights: nomadic Arab tribes—economically devastated by drought and desertification—clash with sedentary non-Arab communities who hold ancestral land usage rights under the traditional hawakeer system.
Today, 24.6 million Sudanese face acute food insecurity (World Food Programme). Cholera and measles outbreaks spread unchecked in overcrowded displacement camps.
A Nation Built on Historic Fractures
Sudan’s collapse cannot be understood without revisiting its painful history.
Since independence in 1956, political and economic power remained concentrated in the Nile Valley elites of Khartoum, marginalising peripheral regions including Darfur, the South, Kordofan, and the Blue Nile.
This marginalisation triggered decades of civil wars:
• the first North–South war (1955–1972)
• the second (1983–2005), intensified by the imposition of Islamic law
• the Darfur war beginning in 2003, marked by the arming of Arab militias (the janjawid)
In 2019, after the fall of Omar al-Bashir, a civilian-military transitional government was formed—only to be overthrown in 2021 by Burhan and Hemedti.
Two years later, the former partners turned their guns on each other, transforming Sudan into the battleground of competing generals, regional powers, and predatory economic networks built around gold.
Who Is Fighting, and Who Supports Whom?
Though ostensibly a domestic conflict, the war rapidly became an arena for foreign powers:
Backing Burhan (SAF):
• Egypt: Protecting its Nile water interests; supplying fuel and ammunition.
• Saudi Arabia: Seeking stability on the Red Sea, financing humanitarian efforts, co-leading peace talks with the U.S.
Backing Hemedti (RSF):
• United Arab Emirates: Providing funds, weapons, logistics, and using RSF-controlled routes to channel Sudanese gold to Dubai.
• Israel (indirectly): According to some analysts, limited cooperation on intelligence and gold-related networks, largely to counter Iranian influence.
Other actors:
• United States: Strong humanitarian involvement; sanctions on RSF leadership and companies linked to gold trafficking.
• Russia: Maintaining ties with both sides; exploiting gold through Wagner/M-Invest; pursuing a naval base in Port Sudan.
• China: Securing its economic interests without political involvement.
• Iran: Providing drones and technical support to the SAF as part of its broader regional strategy.
Gold: The Fuel of the War
Gold is the central engine powering the conflict.
Sudan officially produces 60–70 tonnes of gold a year—but real figures exceed 150 tonnes, most smuggled out of Darfur to the UAE.
Over 80% of Sudanese gold—declared or smuggled—ends up in Dubai’s DMCC (Dubai Multi Commodities Centre), where it is refined and re-exported.
Without this gold pipeline, the RSF would lack the money, fuel, weapons, and foreign support that sustain its war machine.
Meanwhile, the UAE continues to expand its influence across Africa, investing more than $110 billion between 2019 and 2023 in ports, mines, agriculture, and energy.
Sudan, therefore, is not an isolated case—it is a strategic piece in a broader geopolitical and economic puzzle spanning the Sahel and the Red Sea.
Iran, Israel, and a Silent Battle over the Red Sea
Iran has renewed its alliance with the SAF, seeking to restore strategic channels for military transfers through the Red Sea.
Israel, meanwhile, reportedly keeps a close eye on Sudan’s gold networks and RSF supply chains, viewing them through the lens of its regional rivalry with Tehran.
This complex web of alliances highlights a stark truth: Sudan has become a battlefield for global rivalries, where foreign powers weaponize local divisions to safeguard their own strategic interests.
A Bleak Outlook
Today, Khartoum, Omdurman, and multiple major cities lie in ruins. Darfur is once again engulfed in violence. Millions remain displaced with no protection.
The SAF struggles to hold together what remains of the state, while the RSF expands its territorial and economic grip.
With powerful foreign patrons on both sides, and a war economy more profitable than peace, there is little sign that the conflict will end soon.
